CONSERVATIVE NATIONALIST KAROL Nawrocki has won Poland’s weekend presidential runoff election, according to the final vote count.

Nawrocki won 50.89% of the votes in a very tight race against liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, who received 49.11%.

The close race had the country on edge since a first-round two weeks earlier and through the night into this morning, revealing deep divisions in the country along the eastern flank of NATO and the European Union.

An early exit poll released yesterday evening suggested Trzaskowski was headed to victory before updated polling began to reverse the picture hours later.

Rafal Trzaskowski, a liberal pro-European Union figure, pictured addressing supporters at his headquarters. PA PA

The outcome indicates that Poland can be expected to take a more nationalist path under its new leader, who was backed by US President Donald Trump.

Most day-to-day power in the Polish political system rests with a prime minister chosen by the parliament.

However, the president’s role is not merely ceremonial. The office holds the power to influence foreign policy and to veto legislation.

Nawrocki will succeed Andrzej Duda, a conservative whose second and final term ends on 6 August.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk came to power in late 2023 at the end of a coalition government that spans a broad ideological divide — so broad that it hasn’t been able to fulfil some of Tusk’s electoral promises, such as loosening the restrictive abortion law.

But Duda’s veto power has been another obstacle.

It has prevented Tusk from fulfilling promises to reverse laws that politicised the court system in a way that the European Union declared to be undemocratic.

Now it appears that Tusk will have no way to fulfil those promises, which he had made both to voters and to the EU.

Nawrocki, a 42-year-old historian, was tapped by the Law and Justice party as part of its push for a fresh start.

The party governed Poland from 2015 to 2023, when it lost power to a centrist coalition led by Tusk.

Some political observers predicted the party would never make a comeback, and Nawrocki was chosen as a new face who would not be burned by the scandals of the party’s eight years of rule.

Homeland Security secretary Kristi Noem pictured with Karol Nawrocki. PA PA

Nawrocki’s supporters describe him as the embodiment of traditional, patriotic values.

Those who oppose secular trends, including LGBTQ+ visibility, have embraced him, viewing him as a reflection of the traditional values they grew up with.

Trump made it clear he wanted Nawrocki as Poland’s president.

Niezwykle ważne spotkanie Karola Nawrockiego 🇵🇱 z Prezydentem USA 🇺🇸 D. Trumpem w Białym Domu i wspólna rozmowa o strategicznym sojuszu oraz przyszłej współpracy. #Nawrocki2025 pic.twitter.com/8EiRjuKriv

— #Nawrocki2025 (@Nawrocki25) May 2, 2025

The conservative group Conservative Political Action Conference (Cpac) held its first meeting in Poland last week to give Mr Nawrocki a boost.

Kristi Noem, the US Homeland Security secretary and a prominent ally of Trump, strongly praised Nawrocki and urged Poles to vote for him.

The US has about 10,000 troops stationed in Poland and Noem suggested that military ties could deepen with Nawrocki as president.

A common refrain from Nawrocki’s supporters is that he will restore “normality,” as they believe Trump has done.

US flags often appeared at Nawrocki’s rallies, and his supporters believed that he offered a better chance for good ties with the Trump administration.